mRNA Vaccine Effectiveness against COVID-19 among Symptomatic Outpatients Aged >=16 Years in the United States, February to May 2021 (preprint)

Evaluations of vaccine effectiveness (VE) are important to monitor as COVID-19 vaccines are introduced in the general population. Research staff enrolled symptomatic participants seeking outpatient medical care for COVID-19-like illness or SARS-CoV-2 testing from a multisite network. VE was evaluated using the test-negative design. Among 236 SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test-positive and 576 test-negative participants aged [≥]16 years, VE of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19 was 91% (95% CI: 83-95) for full vaccination and 75% (95% CI: 55-87) for partial vaccination. Vaccination was associated with prevention of most COVID-19 cases among people seeking outpatient medical care.

Identifying and alleviating bias due to differential depletion of susceptible people in post-marketing evaluations of COVID-19 vaccines (preprint)

Recent studies have provided key information about SARS-CoV-2 vaccines’ efficacy and effectiveness (VE). One important question that remains is whether the protection conferred by vaccines wanes over time. However, estimates over time are subject to bias from differential depletion of susceptibles between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Here we examine the extent to which biases occur under different scenarios and assess whether serologic testing has the potential to correct this bias. By identifying non-vaccine antibodies, these tests could identify individuals with prior infection. We find in scenarios with high baseline VE, differential depletion of susceptibles creates minimal bias in VE estimates, suggesting that any observed declines are likely not due to spurious waning alone. However, if baseline VE is lower, the bias for leaky vaccines (that reduce individual probability of infection given contact) is larger and should be corrected by excluding individuals with past infection if the mechanism is known to be leaky. Conducting analyses both unadjusted and adjusted for past infection could give lower and upper bounds for the true VE. Studies of VE should therefore enroll individuals regardless of prior infection history but also collect information, ideally through serologic testing, on this critical variable.